euo/usd : the last trading day, the euro rose sharply, the highest rate at 1.4382. SCL, the euro trend downward, above 1.4950 resistance in the vicinity. Short-term, the upward rebound in the euro, followed in the vicinity of 1.4070. Ultra-short-term, the upward trend of the euro, followed in the vicinity of 1.4240, can do more at the top of the support the euro. Wait and see, or near 1.4260, the euro BUY
GPB/USD: the last trading day, the British pound rose substantially, the highest rate at 1.8242. The center line, the downward trend pounds, above 1.8790 resistance in the vicinity. Short-term, sterling rebounded upwards, followed in the vicinity of 1.7730. Ultra-short-term, the upward trend in sterling, followed in the vicinity of 1.8060, at the top of the support to do more pounds.
Wait and see, or near 1.8100, BUY more pounds
USDCHF: the last trading day, the United States and Switzerland declined substantially, the lowest rate at 1.0991. The center line, the upward trend in the United States and Switzerland, followed in the vicinity of 1.0840. Short-term, the United States and Switzerland downward correction, above 1.1280 resistance in the vicinity. Ultra-short-term, downward trend in the United States and Switzerland, above 1.1100 resistance in the vicinity, to go short in the bottom of the resistance to US-Swiss. Wait and see, or near 1.1070, short-Swiss-US
USDJPY: the last trading day, the United States main acts, the lowest exchange rate at 104.36. The center line, the oscillation upward trend in the United States and Japan, followed in the vicinity of 102.50. Short-term, US-Japan movement oscillation, the top resistance in the vicinity of 110.70, followed in the vicinity of 102.50. Ultra-short-term, the United States and Japan oscillation downward trend, the internal structure more complicated, mainly wait-and-see proposal.
Wait and see
USDCAD: the last trading day, the United States and Canada from top to bottom shocks, exchange rate fluctuations of 1.0614-1.0807. The center line, the upward trend in the United States and Canada, nature is not yet clear, followed in the vicinity of 1.0410. Short-term, the upward trend in the United States and Canada, followed in the vicinity of 1.0540. Ultra-short-term, high oscillation in the United States and Canada, the direction of unknown investors, mainly wait-and-see today. Wait and see
AUD/USD: the last trading day, the Australian dollar down oscillation, currency fluctuations range 0.7799-0.8073. The center line, the downward trend in Australian dollars, above 0.8820 resistance in the vicinity. Short-term, downward trend in Australian dollars, above 0.8350 resistance in the vicinity. Ultra-short-term, low oscillation in the Australian dollar, the direction of unknown investors, today continue to wait and see
Wednesday 17 September 2008
Daily Forex Analysis
Economic News
USD
Steady Federal Funds Rate and AIG Bailout Help Boost USD
The greenback experienced a bullish trading session yesterday against all the other major currencies. The highlight of the day was the Fed's announcement that Interest Rates would remain unchanged. The American markets and the USD both reacted positively to this news. Markets also gained stability yesterday with the decision by the Fed to bailout AIG, a major international insurance corporation whose collapse would have wrought havoc on the global economy. The USD rose against the EUR to reach the 1.41 level during part of the day and mostly traded in the mid 1.41's. The USD saw even bigger gains against the JPY, rising more than 200 pips and closing the day in the mid 106's.
Although there were some major economic data releases from the U.S. yesterday, most of the focus went to the Federal Funds Rate announcement. The other main figures that were released prior to the announcement were an unchanged positive rate of the Core PPI and a slightly positive TIC Net Long-Term Transactions figure, which fell sharply compared to last month. The TIC release should have had a bearish effect on the USD, but most of the attention went to the FOMC statement where Fed Chairman Bernake decided to keep the interest rate unchanged. It was mentioned in the FOMC announcement that the financial markets will be under more pressure in the future, and hinted that a decrease in the target interest rate could occur, meaning the USD is not out of the woods just yet.
As for today, the main economic data release will be the Building Permits. With the financial sector getting most of the spotlight recently, traders will look at the housing sector to see the effects. The Building Permits figure is expected to slightly decrease, but nothing as drastic as the recent news from the financial sectors. The other two major releases, the Current Account and Housing Starts, are also expecting a slight drop compared to last month. With the EUR not having any major news releases today, traders should pay attention to the releases coming from the JPY as the Overnight Call Rate has been announced as unchanged at 0.50%, and will be followed by a press conference held by the BoJ to discuss Japan's economic future.
EUR
Positive Economic Indicators Help EUR
Yesterday, the EUR saw a volatile trading session against its major currency counterparts. With a batch of important data releases from the Euro-Zone, Great Britain and the U.S, the market witnessed high volatility. The EUR was bearish against the USD; however, it fluctuated against the GBP, and was very bullish against the CHF and JPY, as the EUR/JPY cross was traded above the 150 range.
Yesterday's events have once again shown how the world's economies affect each other as the U.S. economy had a great impact on the Euro-Zone. The anticipation and release of the American Interest Rate dropped the EUR against the greenback despite positive releases from Europe. Looking at the most impacting releases, the German ZEW Economic Sentiment was higher than last month and the yearly Core CPI increased as well. This data was not enough to cause the EUR to be bullish against the USD and GBP, but did the job for the EUR versus the CHF and JPY.
Today will be a very quiet news day for the EUR as only one economic figure will be released. The Trade Balance is expected to drop even more compared to last month which should harm the EUR; however, the other currencies should drive the market's momentum. The other 3 currencies: the GBP, JPY and USD all have major economic releases that should affect the EUR's volatility today.
JPY
Japanese Interest Rates Held Steady
So far today we are seeing a very bearish trading session for the JPY against its top currency counterparts. The JPY lost grounds to the EUR, USD and GBP, as positive data was released from all 3 of the Yen's counterparts. Against the EUR, the JPY was traded at above 150, and it lost over 200 pips to the USD, trading in the 106 range.
The only economic release from Japan yesterday was the Household Confidence report, which decreased compared to last survey, and traders followed by losing some confidence in the Yen. Harming the JPY even more were the excellent economic news releases from the world's major markets. These helped the EUR, USD and GBP gain positive momentum on behalf of the JPY.
Looking ahead today, the Japanese market should have a heavy effect on the JPY versus its major currency counterparts. The Overnight Call Rate was held steady at 0.50%, but traders should pay close attention to the BoJ Press Conference that will follow it to look for expectations of Japan's economic future. Later tonight, the monthly Tertiary Industry Activity Index is expected to be released with an increase to a positive figure. This should add bullish momentum to the Yen against its counterparts. If Crude Oil prices change drastically following the Crude Oil Inventories release, expect some more volatility on the JPY.
Oil
US Crude Oil Inventories on Tap
Traders witnessed the first rise in oil prices in weeks during today's early trading session. The rise from its recent lowest price of $91 back up to $94 this morning has been predicted by most analysts to be a natural fluctuation in the market, not a trend reversal. When a price drops as rapidly as Crude Oil's has in the past weeks it is natural to see an upward spike here and there as market forces test the limits of the downward trend. Also, the USD's latest surge surely won't help bring a rally to the price of Crude Oil. As the USD gets stronger, Crude Oil prices tend to drop. OPEC has also announced that it forecasts the demand for Oil to be lower than it had previously predicted and may discuss further cuts to production as a result.
Interestingly, media analysts often compare present Crude Oil prices to local fuel prices. While there is a correlation between the two, it must be remembered that Crude Oil prices are a future price, not a present price. As of right now, the price of Crude Oil in the spot market sits at $94.09; this is the price that oil will be bought at in October 2008. The prices that people experience at the gas pump is a reflection of the price of Crude Oil in July, which saw record highs around $147 per barrel, as well as speculation about current Oil Inventories due to the recent hurricanes. Today's announcement from the US about Crude Oil Inventories should assuage fears by shedding light on exactly where these inventories stand. During this announcement, traders may see some volatility in the price of Light Sweet Crude.
Technical News
EUR/USD
The pair slowed down its volatile activity yesterday and is now trading around the 1.4200 level. A bullish cross on the 4-hour chart's Slow Stochastic suggests that the next move should be bullish. Going long might be the right choice today.
GBP/USD
The cable continues to fluctuate within a relatively wide price range and is currently trading at the 1.7900 level. However, a bullish momentum is implied by both the 1-hour and the 4-hour charts. Going long looks to be the preferable choice today.
USD/JPY
The pair's bullish ride was terminated at the 106.50 level, and a bearish inclination took place instead. As all oscillators on the hourlies are pointing down, it appears that going short will be a good strategy today.
USD/CHF
After a few days of mixed results, it seems that the pair has consolidated around the 1.1200 level. However, currently the 1-hour chart is providing exclusive bearish signals, suggesting that a bearish move is imminent. Traders should wait for the breach and swing.
The Wild Card
AUD/JPY
It seems that the pair has limited its bullish correction after reaching that 86.00 level, and is now ready to resume its downtrend. With plenty of room left to go, forex traders might enjoy a very promising trend.
USD
Steady Federal Funds Rate and AIG Bailout Help Boost USD
The greenback experienced a bullish trading session yesterday against all the other major currencies. The highlight of the day was the Fed's announcement that Interest Rates would remain unchanged. The American markets and the USD both reacted positively to this news. Markets also gained stability yesterday with the decision by the Fed to bailout AIG, a major international insurance corporation whose collapse would have wrought havoc on the global economy. The USD rose against the EUR to reach the 1.41 level during part of the day and mostly traded in the mid 1.41's. The USD saw even bigger gains against the JPY, rising more than 200 pips and closing the day in the mid 106's.
Although there were some major economic data releases from the U.S. yesterday, most of the focus went to the Federal Funds Rate announcement. The other main figures that were released prior to the announcement were an unchanged positive rate of the Core PPI and a slightly positive TIC Net Long-Term Transactions figure, which fell sharply compared to last month. The TIC release should have had a bearish effect on the USD, but most of the attention went to the FOMC statement where Fed Chairman Bernake decided to keep the interest rate unchanged. It was mentioned in the FOMC announcement that the financial markets will be under more pressure in the future, and hinted that a decrease in the target interest rate could occur, meaning the USD is not out of the woods just yet.
As for today, the main economic data release will be the Building Permits. With the financial sector getting most of the spotlight recently, traders will look at the housing sector to see the effects. The Building Permits figure is expected to slightly decrease, but nothing as drastic as the recent news from the financial sectors. The other two major releases, the Current Account and Housing Starts, are also expecting a slight drop compared to last month. With the EUR not having any major news releases today, traders should pay attention to the releases coming from the JPY as the Overnight Call Rate has been announced as unchanged at 0.50%, and will be followed by a press conference held by the BoJ to discuss Japan's economic future.
EUR
Positive Economic Indicators Help EUR
Yesterday, the EUR saw a volatile trading session against its major currency counterparts. With a batch of important data releases from the Euro-Zone, Great Britain and the U.S, the market witnessed high volatility. The EUR was bearish against the USD; however, it fluctuated against the GBP, and was very bullish against the CHF and JPY, as the EUR/JPY cross was traded above the 150 range.
Yesterday's events have once again shown how the world's economies affect each other as the U.S. economy had a great impact on the Euro-Zone. The anticipation and release of the American Interest Rate dropped the EUR against the greenback despite positive releases from Europe. Looking at the most impacting releases, the German ZEW Economic Sentiment was higher than last month and the yearly Core CPI increased as well. This data was not enough to cause the EUR to be bullish against the USD and GBP, but did the job for the EUR versus the CHF and JPY.
Today will be a very quiet news day for the EUR as only one economic figure will be released. The Trade Balance is expected to drop even more compared to last month which should harm the EUR; however, the other currencies should drive the market's momentum. The other 3 currencies: the GBP, JPY and USD all have major economic releases that should affect the EUR's volatility today.
JPY
Japanese Interest Rates Held Steady
So far today we are seeing a very bearish trading session for the JPY against its top currency counterparts. The JPY lost grounds to the EUR, USD and GBP, as positive data was released from all 3 of the Yen's counterparts. Against the EUR, the JPY was traded at above 150, and it lost over 200 pips to the USD, trading in the 106 range.
The only economic release from Japan yesterday was the Household Confidence report, which decreased compared to last survey, and traders followed by losing some confidence in the Yen. Harming the JPY even more were the excellent economic news releases from the world's major markets. These helped the EUR, USD and GBP gain positive momentum on behalf of the JPY.
Looking ahead today, the Japanese market should have a heavy effect on the JPY versus its major currency counterparts. The Overnight Call Rate was held steady at 0.50%, but traders should pay close attention to the BoJ Press Conference that will follow it to look for expectations of Japan's economic future. Later tonight, the monthly Tertiary Industry Activity Index is expected to be released with an increase to a positive figure. This should add bullish momentum to the Yen against its counterparts. If Crude Oil prices change drastically following the Crude Oil Inventories release, expect some more volatility on the JPY.
Oil
US Crude Oil Inventories on Tap
Traders witnessed the first rise in oil prices in weeks during today's early trading session. The rise from its recent lowest price of $91 back up to $94 this morning has been predicted by most analysts to be a natural fluctuation in the market, not a trend reversal. When a price drops as rapidly as Crude Oil's has in the past weeks it is natural to see an upward spike here and there as market forces test the limits of the downward trend. Also, the USD's latest surge surely won't help bring a rally to the price of Crude Oil. As the USD gets stronger, Crude Oil prices tend to drop. OPEC has also announced that it forecasts the demand for Oil to be lower than it had previously predicted and may discuss further cuts to production as a result.
Interestingly, media analysts often compare present Crude Oil prices to local fuel prices. While there is a correlation between the two, it must be remembered that Crude Oil prices are a future price, not a present price. As of right now, the price of Crude Oil in the spot market sits at $94.09; this is the price that oil will be bought at in October 2008. The prices that people experience at the gas pump is a reflection of the price of Crude Oil in July, which saw record highs around $147 per barrel, as well as speculation about current Oil Inventories due to the recent hurricanes. Today's announcement from the US about Crude Oil Inventories should assuage fears by shedding light on exactly where these inventories stand. During this announcement, traders may see some volatility in the price of Light Sweet Crude.
Technical News
EUR/USD
The pair slowed down its volatile activity yesterday and is now trading around the 1.4200 level. A bullish cross on the 4-hour chart's Slow Stochastic suggests that the next move should be bullish. Going long might be the right choice today.
GBP/USD
The cable continues to fluctuate within a relatively wide price range and is currently trading at the 1.7900 level. However, a bullish momentum is implied by both the 1-hour and the 4-hour charts. Going long looks to be the preferable choice today.
USD/JPY
The pair's bullish ride was terminated at the 106.50 level, and a bearish inclination took place instead. As all oscillators on the hourlies are pointing down, it appears that going short will be a good strategy today.
USD/CHF
After a few days of mixed results, it seems that the pair has consolidated around the 1.1200 level. However, currently the 1-hour chart is providing exclusive bearish signals, suggesting that a bearish move is imminent. Traders should wait for the breach and swing.
The Wild Card
AUD/JPY
It seems that the pair has limited its bullish correction after reaching that 86.00 level, and is now ready to resume its downtrend. With plenty of room left to go, forex traders might enjoy a very promising trend.
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